I used to think trading was all about predictions.
Get the direction right, get paid.
Get it wrong, get punished.
If you still think that’s the name of the game…It isn’t.
So stop trying to predict the market.
Sign up here to start trading with a system
Let me ask you this…
When you’re going over finances at the end of the month, and you’ve lost $2500 on your trading account, what will your spouse say when you tell them…
“Babe I know we lost, but my thesis was right!”
Good luck with that one..
Making MONEY is the only thing that truly matters in trading.
I can show you a trade where my thesis was completely wrong, and it cost me nothing.
I can also show you a trade where I called the direction exactly right, for over two weeks straight, and it nearly buried me anyway.
Reading the tea leaves of the market is a nice trick, but it doesn’t necessarily get you paid.
This is the reason I’ve made over $26 million in trading profits. I don’t care whether I’m right or wrong.
It’s all about how you react moment to moment.
Getting it Right vs. Getting Paid
The MSTR Trades
Back in March, I was short Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) and the trade went against me right away.
Small loss, nothing dramatic, but the read was wrong. The stock wasn’t doing what I thought it would do.
I didn’t argue with it. I didn’t average down and wait to be proven right eventually.
I flipped.
I went long the same name, same day.
The first long paid over $81,000, better than a 1.7% move in my favor.
I was wrong on the first read. Dead wrong.
But I saw it, I flipped, I got paid.
The CAR Trades
In April I was short Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ: CAR) from the first week of the month. I thought the stock was rolling over, and I was right.
It kept bleeding lower, exactly the way I expected, for over two weeks straight.
Being right did nothing for me.
On April 20, the stock moved 1.79% against me on that short. A move that small should be nothing.
It cost me over $407,000.
The next day, a move of less than 1%.
Another $135,000 gone.
I stayed too big for the trade. Small misses were turning into six-figure losses because of size, not the call.
Then on April 22, same short, same read, size fixed.
It paid $895,000 on one entry. A second entry the same day paid another $892,000.
Almost $1.8 million in a single day. Off the exact same thesis that had been quietly bleeding me for two weeks straight.
One trade nearly wrecked me. The other paid millions.
I was wrong on MSTR and got paid.
I was right on CAR and almost didn’t.
On MSTR, I admitted the read was wrong in real time and acted on it fast. On CAR, I cut my size down to something that could survive being wrong.
You don’t need to be right. You need to know what to do the second you’re in the trade, whether the tape agrees with you or not.
I’ve been wrong plenty of times and still had green days. I’ve been right plenty of times and still had red ones.
The traders who last aren’t the ones with the best crystal ball. They’re the ones who don’t need one. Forget the crystal ball, sign up here to start trading smarter.
Stay sharp,
Jack Kellogg
*Past performance does not indicate future results
