Can you feel the SPY seasonality vs war uncertainty? (It’s a full-blown stock market tug o’ war chop fest.)
One setup doesn’t care.
It could be a bull market…
… a bear market…
… crazy volatility…
… or Middle East conflict with full-blown “energy shock”…
This setup has been playing out for decades…
Good News for You
Because the headlines have been rolling across the screens so fast that even veteran traders find it frustrating.
The market has been extremely choppy over the last few months.
I’ve still given solid alerts in that time (and had solid wins).
But last week I was still in drawdown for the year (this week has been MUCH better).
My overnight swing on Meiwu Technology Company Limited (NASDAQ: WNW) was one of the best risk-to-reward plays I’ve seen in a long time.
And on Wednesday I closed out a swing trade on Strategy, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) for $81,405.*
As I write on Thursday, March 19, I’m up $305,933 on the week.*
That’s great, but there’s something I want to point out…
My MSTR trade was only a 1.72% win.
So, unless you are able to trade size like I can now, it’s super tough to rack up wins like that.
Even then, you should NEVER follow another trader into a trade.
Learn from them, but don’t try to do what they do.
Trying to trade like Grittani and Dux got me into trouble back in the day because they had earned the right to trade that way (and I had NOT).
Find an edge that works for YOU (especially right now).
I’m pretty bullish on the overall markets because of…
SPY Seasonality
I believe the markets are changing and we are seeing S&P 500 (SPY) seasonality (where the market starts to pick up in March).
I’ve been calling it since February 4 (and it was also one of my March “Gut Feels”).
Today it happened… as I write, the SPY finally tapped the 200D moving average…
Now let’s see if it bids back up (we could see a nice multi-week move).
That’s what I’m hoping for, guys (but there’s one problem)…
A bounce isn’t a sure thing…
War Uncertainty
We have had a lot of bad news over the past several months.
Add war to the mix, and the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady this week wasn’t a surprise.
The overall market is behaving like it isn’t quite sure how things will play out:
- The war created an energy shock.
- Oil prices jumped back above $100 a barrel this week, (and everyone is worried about inflation).
- Gold and silver are selling off – which isn’t normal during a war (usually gold is a safe haven).
- With oil up so much, money that would normally go into gold is flowing into energy.
- Keeping interest rates steady is slightly bearish for metals (they usually go up when interest rates fall).
- Finally, back and forth attacks on gas and oil facilities in the Middle East keeps the headlines rolling across the screen.
I’m not a doom-and-gloomer but this market could stay choppy a little longer.
So, what should you do?
Find a setup that works in any kind of market.
A Setup That Doesn’t Care
First, look for a setup that works in bull markets, bear markets, and doesn’t care if the VIX spikes.
You might think that’s tough, but looking back on my trading career there’s one setup that fits.
It’s been happening for at least 100 years (I first heard about it from Tim Sykes and Tim Bohen).
There are even studies – Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University each tracked 100M+ trades to confirm it.
Now, an SEC amendment that passed in November 2025 makes it even MORE likely we’ll see this setup.
According to Tim Bohen, we could see hundreds of these this year.
When I asked him about it, he said “The switch has already been flipped.”
And when I asked about the war, Bohen had this to say…
“If this held up during a heated panic like a potential world war, I’m convinced it can hold up through anything.”
On Wednesday, March 25th at 8pm ET, Tim Sykes is sitting down with Tim Bohen to get the full breakdown.
It’s a must watch event. I’ll be watching (and I suggest you do, too).
Have a great weekend.
– Jack Kellogg
